Κατηγορία: Μέλετες

I don’t think people realize just how extraordinary what we’re witnessing with Iran is. I was arguing with a dear journalist friend of mine yesterday who was telling me that Iran was winning, yes, but only on the strategic level, not tactically.  The type of thing a skinny kid getting stuffed in lockers in highschool tells himself to make himself feel better: “These people will BEG to work for me in ten years. Everyone knows jocks peak in highschool. They’ll literally beg.”  I think that’s precisely wrong, and that’s what…

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Core takeaway  The bottom line: As this latest disaster unfolds, Americans and others will rightly want to hold those responsible to account. They should focus on the specific groups and individuals—from the president on down—who embraced Israel’s approach to the region and managed to convince themselves that yet another orgy of violence would be in the U.S. interest. Until the lobby’s influence is reduced and the United States establishes a more normal relationship with Israel, such episodes are likely to be repeated, making the United States look like a heartless…

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“To understand how liberalism works in international politics, it’s necessary to understand how it interacts with nationalism and realism, both of which profoundly affect the interactions among states.” ¹ Prof John Mearsheimer 

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Prof. John Mearsheimer explains why the war against Iran has already been lost, and why there is no off-ramp.  John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982.   https://youtu.be/1e9NhLfPNKU?is=jWYobtrkq-AW3ntF

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President Trump told CBS today the war with Iran could be over soon. As I told @davidgura at @business last week¹, two forces will ultimately shape how and when this ends: markets and munitions². Watch the oil, stock, and bond markets. And watch our supply of missiles (offensive and interceptors) and that of our regional partners. Expect a declaration of “victory” that trades one ayatollah for another. ¹In an interview for the Big Take podcast, Blinken and host David Gura discuss the Obama and Biden administrations’ efforts to avoid conflict…

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Core takeaways  a. American empire’s retreat from the Levant and the Middle East in general b. Bibi Netanyahu, is ready to use a nuclear weapon ________________________ “You’re witnessing right now [the] American empire’s retreat from the Levant and the Middle East in general.” Lawrence Wilkerson, retired U.S. Army colonel and former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, says the U.S. is at risk of losing its war on Iran, where it’s already committed major war crimes. “This is a war with long legs,” adds Wilkerson. “Trump has…

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¹This is a technical story with stunning strategic implications.  It is quite possible the US launched a massive war because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lacked the technical expertise to even understand what the Iranians were offering in negotiations.  Absolute idiocy³. ²The Trump administration has cited Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor as a central justification for its military strikes, but has provided no evidence that the facility — built by the United States and used for civilian research for nearly six decades — was being used to develop nuclear weapons. Multiple…

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Private Reinsurance, IRGC Fragmentation, Interceptor Depletion, and a Dead Nuclear Fatwa Have Produced a Crisis No Military Victory Can Resolve Core take away The war has no political exit because Ghalibaf closed it.  No commercial exit because the actuaries closed it five days earlier.  No military exit because the doctrine was designed to outlast every strategy conceived by the adversaries it was built to fight. The market priced a quick war. The doctrine priced a long one.  Ghalibaf just told you which. I. You Are Short a Mechanism You Have…

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Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice discusses Iran’s history with the United States and what could come after Operation Epic Fury on ‘Special Report. ‘ https://youtu.be/jvFiIxQ9Sl0?is=Ij9ZxNVDpRE_SbOZ

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Donald Trump has gone too far and now he’s calling on Erdogan to prove his loyalty by jointly assassinating the Supreme Leader of Iran Mohammad Khatami Khamenei. “Let’s do this together — you and me. We’ll put an end to this ‘little Khamenei’ — the son, the little Khamenei. Not as great, very weak compared to his father, a total lightweight, a total loser. We’ll take him out — easily, very easily. Nobody does it better than us. Nobody!” “So, Erdogan — talk or action? Speeches or missiles? Decide quickly,…

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