Κατηγορία: Μέλετες

Core takeaway¹  Russia & China Position Regarding Iran  There has been plenty of nonsense talk asking where China and Russia are in coming to Iran’s defense.  In fact although both have ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreements’ with Iran, these are largely economic and do not oblige either Russia or China to become militarily involved in Iranian defense. But they do provide support – such as satellite intelligence and so on.  Meanwhile, the Russian and Chinese Foreign Ministers discussed what is happening in Iran yesterday. Note that international protocols are being observed,…

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¹IRAN SITREP: When euphoria disappears. Today marks a historic inflection point in the Middle East with global consequences. Military action may achieve tactical objectives, but history teaches that the most consequential phase begins after the initial strikes. When the euphoria fades, strategic reality sets in.  Based on training, experience, and years of studying conflicts and wars, the central question now is not what just happened, but what happens next. Below are three potential scenarios that frame the path forward. 1. Regime hunkers down and offers a deal (recalibration or IRGCistan).…

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Το Ιράν έκλεισε τα Στενά του Ορμούζ ως αντίποινα στην αμερικανοϊσραηλινή επίθεση “Epic Fury”, απειλώντας την παγκόσμια ενεργειακή ασφάλεια και γεωπολιτική σταθερότητα. Τα Στενά του Ορμούζ διακινούν περίπου το 20% της παγκόσμιας κατανάλωσης πετρελαίου και το 20-25% του υγροποιημένου φυσικού αερίου, καθιστώντας τα κρίσιμο σημείο για την παγκόσμια οικονομία. Οι ΗΠΑ, το Ισραήλ και οι σύμμαχοί τους ενισχύουν τη στρατιωτική προστασία, ενώ οι ασφαλιστικές αυξάνουν τα ασφάλιστρα και οι αγωγοί εναλλακτικών διαδρομών έχουν περιορισμένη χωρητικότητα. Η διακοπή προκαλεί αύξηση τιμών πετρελαίου και φυσικού αερίου, επηρεάζοντας ιδιαίτερα χώρες όπως η Κίνα,…

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Core take aways Our record of achievement of helping to consolidate democracy after military intervention is not impressive (4 for 17, by my count). To make clear that military force should never be conflated with democracy promotion, every National Security Strategy written by future American presidents should clearly state that we will not use our armed forces for regime change.” Excerpt from AUTOCRATS VS DEMOCRATS: “Despite the myths propagated by our adversaries, the United States has rarely used military force to promote democracy.  Apart from the U.S. intervention in Panama,…

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Core takeaway  A new Cold War has begun Autocrats vs. Democrats China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder By Michael McFaul “A history, an analysis, and a set of prescriptions for the greatest geopolitical challenge of our time: the threat to the democratic world posed by China and Russia.” —Anne Applebaum, author of Autocracy, Inc. “A monumental account of contemporary geopolitics”—Francis Fukuyama, author of Liberalism and Its Discontents From New York Times bestselling author and former ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul comes a bold, clear-eyed look at how the…

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Iran says its attack killed about 200 US soldiers Iranians are demanding an emergency meeting of the Security Council. The Iranian side announced two things: 1. The Iranian missile attack resulted in the deaths of approximately 200 American soldiers. 2. Iranian missiles destroyed an A/N FPS-132 Block 5 radar system, an advanced phased-array radar system deployed by US forces in Qatar. This radar has a detection range of 5,000 kilometers, and its primary mission is to provide early warning of ballistic missiles to the United States and Israel.

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CHINA: “The US is a war addict. Throughout its over 240-year history, it has been at war for all but 16 years. The US has 800 overseas military bases in over 80 countries and regions. The US is the main cause of international disorder, global turbulence, and regional instability.”

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Eric X. Li’s conversation with John Pilger rips off the mask Western democracies hide behind: voting in the United States is a charade. Parties trade seats, slogans shift, faces rotate, but policy stays chained to money. Why? Because the state doesn’t belong to the people,it belongs to billionaires, corporate lobbyists, and financial elites. Voters get an illusion of choice; real power sits in boardrooms. The evidence is brutal. Donald Trump turned the White House into a billionaire playground, paraded tech moguls like Zuckerberg, slashed corporate taxes, and merged foreign policy…

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US is caught in the Smart Bomb Trap — failure to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in June is creating extreme fears to escalate which will make matters worse. To see where we’re heading:  In June 2025, the United States launched precision air strikes against Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility. The operation was tactically effective. Targets were hit. Infrastructure was damaged.But the objective was never to crater concrete.It was to ensure that Iran would not obtain a nuclear weapon.By that standard, Stage I did not succeed.At the time of the strike, the…

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