Abstract
The historical evolution of the energy relationship between Russia and Europe, from the Cold War up to the break after 2022, is examined. Furthermore, the way this shift reshaped the EU’s security of supply, market design and decarbonisation pathway is analysed. Βy using official statistics, policy documents and academic literature, this study maps how interdependency grew around long-term pipeline contracts. It also identifies the episodes that exposed structural vulnerabilities and the broader framework of diversification and energy transition that was triggered by the 2022 war in Ukraine, resulting in the REPowerEU package. It is shown how energy price shocks, storage dynamics and reliance on imports led to structural responses in the EU framework. Specifically, internal market rules, reverse-flow systems, interconnections and storage obligations are included in these responses. They were complemented by the Green Deal that directs investment to renewables, grids and flexibility. Moreover, transatlantic dynamics are taken into account. It is shown how flexible US LNG, alongside Europe’s regasification capacity and market integration, have provided short-term flexibility. Thus, Russian pipeline volumes could be gradually replaced and storage to be refilled. However, it is expected that gas demand will be in decline because of the increase in electrification, efficiency and environmental protection. Finally, the potential risks and benefits of a limited, conditional re-engagement with Russian energy supply are evaluated. It seems that Europe’s path forward relies on further electrification by domestic renewables, stronger grids and cross-border connections. The importance of demand-side flexibility is also highlighted, with gas expected to be in a declining, backup role in the future.
Core Takeaways
- Europe’s energy relationship with Russia evolved from a commercial pipeline-based arrangement into a structural interdependency, exposing significant security-of-supply vulnerabilities that became even more evident especially after 2022.
- Energy security outcomes were shaped not only by geopolitics but also by infrastructure design, market organisation and contractual arrangements, including pipeline routing, interconnections and legacy gas contracts.
- The EU’s response has prioritised flexibility as the core driver of resilience—physically (interconnections, storage, reverse flows), contractually (hub-based trading, LNG portfolios) and operationally (demand-side participation).
- Supply diversification alone proved insufficient without the ability to rapidly redirect flows; storage capacity, market liquidity and cross-border integration were decisive in stabilising the system after the crisis.
- Decarbonisation and energy security are structurally aligned objectives, as higher shares of domestic renewables, electrification and flexible resources reduce exposure to external suppliers and fossil fuel price volatility.
- LNG has played a critical short-term stabilising role, enabled by prior investments and liberalised markets, but is likely to shift towards a declining, backup function as gas demand falls.
- A limited, conditional, strict energy re-engagement with Russian pipeline gas might offer marginal and conditional economic benefits, while long-term risks related to dependency, legal uncertainty and geopolitical exposure remain substantial. In this setup, the added security of supply value of renewed Russian pipeline gas is limited and depends largely on extreme weather or long-lasting global disruption.
- In closing, the impact of Europe’s previous energy interdependency had clear effects, signaling a new model that promotes energy transition and protection of the environment. Decarbonisation, market integration and security are not separate goals, but interconnected elements of a single, strong strategy. For Russia, the shift away from Europe brings expenses and delays that depend on its infrastructure and the size of other markets. For Europe, the path is challenging but promising: a system based on domestic primary energy, strong interconnections and flexible operation seem to be a credible path to reduce external leverage. Whilst, at the same time, long-term economic and climate goals are achieved.
The full study is available as an attached document.
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1. Brief Author’s bio
Georgios Kalpaxis hold an integrated Master’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). He also hold a Master of Science (MSc) in Energy: Strategy, Law and Economics from the University of Piraeus (UniPi).
