“This poses an existential threat to the Iran regime; they will throw everything at America & Israel. They will seek to survive as a regime. If they do, it will be a victory for them. It would also be a problem for the Trump admin.”
Insights & questions from the first phase of the Iran War.
Conclusion
In 2005, I served in Baghdad with a U.S. military unit. It was during this time that Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) IEDs began to proliferate in Iraq due to the Iranians. It was a terrible time, and I damn the Iranian regime every day for this intervention and horrendous deaths of American service personnel it caused. It is good to see many of those Iranians responsible are now being removed from the land of the living.
The first couple of days of the new Iran War has provided some interesting initial insights which I have covered in this short article. Unfortunately, I think there are more questions than answers at this point, but that is the nature of war.
There will also be more surprises, just like the accidental downing of the F-15 aircraft today.
That too, unfortunately, is an elemental part of warfare.The initial phase of the military campaign has been a success.
The really hard bits – the formation of a different regime and reconstruction of a more liberal Iranian society that can get on with its neighbours – still lies ahead. Neither success nor failure in this endeavour are guaranteed.
mickryan.substack :
(Image: @CENTCOM)
¹https://x.com/i/status/2028672178280112380
