«Όταν ο Francis Fukuyamaª συναντά τον Mearsheimer 
»
Ένα άρθρο, πολύ μεγάλης βαρύτητας, δημοσιεύτηκε από τον Francis. Βοηθά όλους να κατανοήσουν την πολύ σοβαρή πιθανότητα κλιμάκωσης του πολέμου σε πυρηνικό πόλεμο, εφόσον, είναι η πρώτη φορά στην ιστορία των κρατών που ένα κράτος εξοπλισμένο μέχρι τα δόντια με πυρηνικά, προκαλείται από ένα κράτος που δεν έχει πυρηνικά • δεν πρέπει βέβαια να μας διαφεύγει ότι, για τη Δύση διακυβεύεται η αξιοπιστία της να υποστηρίξει ένα κράτος που επιθύμησε να ενταχθεί στη φιλελεύθερη τάξη πραγμάτων δηλαδή να γίνει φιλελεύθερη δημοκρατία. Η αγωνία αυτή της Δύσης συναντάει αντίστοιχη αγωνία από τη Ρωσία και σιωπηλά από την Κίνα (αναφερόμαστε μόνο στις Μεγάλες Δυνάμεις). Υπό αυτή την έννοια, θα μπορούσε να υποστηρίξει κάποιος ότι, το Διεθνές Σύστημα είναι Διπολικό [Δύση (ΗΠΑ) – Κίνα/ Ρωσία]. Τα παρακολουθούμε όλα και τα αξιολογούμε ανάλογα.
An article of great gravity was published by Francis. It helps everyone to understand the very serious possibility of an escalation of war into nuclear war, since this is the first time in the history of states that a state equipped to the teeth with nuclear weapons is provoked by a state that does not have nuclear weapons; of course, we must not forget that for the West its credibility to support a state that wished to join the liberal order, that is, to become a liberal democracy, is at stake. This anxiety of the West is met with similar anguish from Russia and silently from China (we refer only to the Great Powers). In this sense, one could argue that the International System is Bipolar [West (USA) – China/Russia]. We monitor everything and evaluate it accordingly.
«I just returned from Ukraine and the annual meeting of the Yalta European Security (YES) conference, one of the premier international events for people interested in the situation in that country»
(See my Frankly Fukuyama video on the trip hereªª.)
BLUFªªª
Bottom Line Up Front
1. Kyiv looks surprisingly normal from the outside.
2. But the military situation is deteriorating.
3. The Russians continue to press forward to Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub underpinning Ukrainian defenses in western Donbas
4. The nature of the war has evolved rapidly since its early days; it is now being fought on both sides with drones
5. On the front lines, one can move only during twilight or dawn, since the drones can see and destroy everything in daylight or nighttime.
6. One commander of a drone unit explained that the technology was changing extremely rapidly; he expected AI would permit pilotless drones by next year that could choose targets and coordinate among themselves without human intervention. The immediate impetus for this shift is the extreme vulnerability of drone operators to counter-battery fire. Ukraine has created a very impressive indigenous drone industry that is capable of producing hundreds of thousands of drones per year; the problem is not capacity but money.
7. The Russians continue to strike targets throughout Ukraine with missiles and Iranian Shahed drones, aiming in particular for the country’s electrical grid.
8. The Shaheds, which are relatively easy to shoot down, cause the Ukrainians to light up their anti-aircraft radars, whereupon the latter are attacked by Kinzhal ballistic missiles.
9. They have openly criticized President Biden’s fear of escalation, pointing to the many “red lines” that have been crossed already with no Russian escalatory response. The logic of this is impeccable, and it was very disappointing that, at the summit between Biden and British PM Keir Starmer towards the end of the conference, no lifting of range restrictions was announced.
10. During their debate on Sept. 10, Trump refused to say that he hoped for a Ukrainian victory over Russia, and continued to assert that he could end the war.
While we were in Kyiv, vice presidential candidate JD Vance outlined the Trump “peace plan” for Ukraine.
This plan was drawn directly from the Putin playbook: It would feature a ceasefire freezing current lines in place, effectively ceding to Russia control over territories captured since the start of the full-scale invasion and securing a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO. I can see why the Ukrainians themselves may want to downplay their fears of a future Trump administration, since they are the ones who would have to live with it if he is elected. But there should be no mistaking the disastrous consequences for Ukraine of a Republican victory in November.
11. I’m grateful to Viktor Pinchuk for organizing the YES conference, now in its 20th iteration. The hope was expressed that the conference may one day return to its original venue in Yalta. For this to happen, though, the United States and Ukraine’s other partners must get much more serious about the level of military and economic support they are willing to provide Kyiv, and stop deterring themselves in the face of Russian aggression.
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a. Francis Fukuyama is Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He writes the “Frankly Fukuyama” column, carried forward from American Purpose, at Persuasion.
aa. Sep 18, 2024 :
aaa. Observations about the situation in Ukraine from the Yalta European Security conference in Kyiv, September 2024 :
